Spatial and temporal analyses of potential land use conflict under the constraints of water resources in the middle reaches of the Heihe River

With the rapid urbanization in China, land resources are becoming increasingly scarce. Identifying and resolving land use conflict is essential for reasonably using land resources and achieving land sustainability. Taking the middle reaches of the Heihe River as an example, we included the constraints of local water resources to construct a multi-criteria evaluation system for assessing land use competitiveness in 2000 and 2015 based on land use, socio-economic, and nighttime light data. By comparing the competitiveness of cultivated land, construction land and ecological land, we then derived the spatiotemporal patterns of potential land use conflicts. Actual land use changes supported the hypothesis that land use tended to convert into the type with higher competitiveness at areas with intense conflict, which better indicated that our assessment model was effective. The results showed that the potential land use conflict was more acute in the central and northwest but weak in the southeast and northeast, and its pattern showed a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation. The conflict between cultivated land and construction land was most prominent and mainly occurred in the transitional zone from urban to rural areas. Rapid urban development and water shortage were the main causes of the potential land use conflict. Assessing land use multi-functions and making a tradeoff among ecological, economic, and social services will be an effective way to guide future land use to solve land use conflict. Our research provides scientific evidence for sustainable land use planning and management in the arid areas.     

An evaluation of contemporary China’s land use policy – The Link Policy: A case study from Ezhou,Hubei Province

Economic reform in China has resulted in rapid urbanisation over the past three decades, changing the urban and rural landscape dramatically. A large amount of farmland was developed, leading to conflict between construction demand and farmland protection. In response, the “Link Policy” was proposed in 2005 that seeks to concurrently preserve farmland while providing for urban expansion through land exchange. The effectiveness of the Link Policy has not been systematically investigated. The purpose of this study is to analyse and evaluate outcomes of the Link Policy objectives from both a participant and investigator’s interpretive perspective. Ezhou, the first experimental city to implement the Link Policy in Hubei Province in central China, was selected as a case study area. Eight different communities in Ezhou were visited and 160 semi-structured interviews were conducted with resettled rural residents in March 2016. A combination of interviews and investigator field observations were used to evaluate the Link Policy objectives. The results show that participants recognize and support improving rural living conditions and coordinating urban-rural development, but the Link Policy failed to achieve the objectives of preserving farmland, protecting farmers’ land use rights and interests, and facilitating agricultural production. Participants perceived concentrated resettlement communities to be more efficient in land use compared to more expansive rural settlements, but vacant apartments for commercial use in resettlement areas account for a large proportion of land suggesting inefficiency in the land exchanges. We suggest policy changes to achieve more successful implementation of the Link Policy.     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与成熟度的影响路径

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中,公众是重要的参与主体,个体间生活环境、知识背景及心理素质的差异性会直接影响稳评结果。公众参与成熟度是公众参与的衡量要素,由能力成熟度和心理成熟度两个方面构成。从能力与心理两个角度设计调查问卷,运用结构方程模型,探究内部影响路径。结果表明,公众参与心理成熟度直接影响能力成熟度,而能力成熟度又通过参与意愿影响着心理成熟度,两者间存在相互影响的关系。政府可以通过开展道德素质教育,改善公众参与动机,以提高公众参与心理成熟度及能力成熟度,最终整体提高公众参与成熟度,保证稳评工作的质量,提升重大水利工程项目决策科学性。     

叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全预警演变与时空格局分析

[目的]探索叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全预警问题及其时空格局变化,旨在为叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全及可持续利用提供科学的参考依据。[方法]文章运用PSR模型构建预警指标体系,采用熵值法测算各指标权重,对2000—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全警情格局进行综合分析,并利用GIS技术分析其2000年、2005年、2010年和2016年土地生态安全空间格局变化,最后运用障碍度模型探索其障碍因子。[结果](1)2000—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全综合预警指数总体呈上升态势,生态预警状态由"较不安全"转为"临界安全",警度亦由"重警"变为"中警"。(2)从空间格局来看,空间上各县域土地生态安全水平差异明显,研究初期西部地区土地生态安全状态优于东部地区, 2016年呈现出中部高、东北—西南部低的态势。(3)近17年叶尔羌河平原绿洲各县域土地生态环境状况有所改善,安全状态经历了"极不安全—临界安全—较安全"的发展历程。(4)影响土地生态安全的主要障碍因子包括单位面积耕地农药负荷、人口密度、单位面积耕地化肥负荷、土地垦殖率、人口自然增长率和单位面积耕地地膜负荷等。[结论]研究期间叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全得到明显的提升与改善,并在良好的方向发展。     

Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Is more financial development better?

We investigate the extent to which an increase in financial development affects the positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Although the financial sector is beneficial for economic growth, the effect of further financial development on growth is found to become insignificant. Using a dynamic panel threshold model on 62 middle- and high-income countries spanning the period 1987–2016, we re-examine the possible nonlinearity between finance, foreign direct investment, and growth. Consistent with the “vanishing effect” of financial development, we find significant evidence that foreign direct investment fosters growth in general, but the growth effect of foreign direct investment becomes negligible when the ratio of private sector credit to gross domestic product exceeds 95.6%. This finding is robust to different econometric methods, various subsamples and interaction analyses, and distinct financial development indicators.     

TFP growth in Chinese cities: The role of factor-intensity and industrial agglomeration

This article estimates agglomeration effects via calculating EG (Elilsion & Glaeser) and TFP growth (Total Factor Production) by considering the undesired output of the industrial enterprise database and the entropy weight method. Using panel data of 207 county-level cities in China and 28 two-digit manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2013 based on SIC codes, this paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration and TFP growth through the smooth transition model under different regions and factor-intensity. The results are as follows. (1) A negative relationship appears in manufacturing productivity. The agglomeration effect changes to the crowded effect. Environmental pollution is also generated by transportation and inadequate pollution treatment technology. (2) The excessive agglomeration phenomenon of developed areas (eastern region) is less than the less developed areas (central and western regions). (3) Resource-intensity industries present two thresholds that indicate complex regional features. For various intensive industries in different regions, the relationship between GML and agglomeration is different. High agglomeration does not always promote TFP growth. (4) At different levels of urban industrial agglomeration, the influences of efficiency change and technical change on GML are different. Overall, moderate agglomeration in all regions helps promote economic development.     

省级区域规划实施评估方法和机制探究

省级区域规划是国家和地方发展和空间规划体系中的重要组成部分。在我国建立更加有效的区域协调发展新机制的实践中,探究我国省级区域规划实施评估中存在的问题,研究和建立更加有效的省级区域规划实施评估的内容、方法和机制,对于进一步落实好省级政府的责任和义务,更好全面、有效实施好省级区域规划具有重要推动作用。文章提出了我国省级区域规划实施评估存在的问题、评估的方法、评估的内容和指标体系,并提出了具体建立更加有效的省级区域规划实施评估机制的建议和设想。     

基于行为—结果—反馈的粤西北山区“十二五”高标准农田建设绩效评价及低效因子诊断

[目的]弥补现有绩效观的不足,提出并解析了基于行为—结果—反馈的土地整治绩效评价内涵,开展粤西北山区"十二五"高标准农田建设绩效评价及低效因子诊断。[方法]从实施行为、效益结果、调查反馈3个方面建立指标体系,采用熵权改进的TOPSIS法和障碍度模型量化评估绩效水平并诊断低效因子。[结果]粤西北山区各县市在组织实施、综合效益和调查反馈方面各有不足,"十二五"高标准农田建设绩效水平总体有待进一步提高,绩效评价结果具有显著的区域差异,罗定市绩效值最高,绩效水平为良好;英德市、蕉岭县、南雄市、仁化县的绩效水平为中级;郁南县、龙川县、始兴县、云安县的绩效水平为低级;对于粤西北山区大多数县(市),实施行为作为首位低效因子,对高标准农田建设绩效的贡献度最小。[结论]基于行为—结果—反馈的绩效观,采用熵权改进的TOPSIS法和障碍度模型的绩效评价,能够客观衡量研究区高标准农田建设绩效水平。增加田间道路建设、提高土地流转面积、加强专项工作经费落实对于提高粤西北山区高标准农田建设水平具有普适性。     

中国区域农业科技资源配置能力及比较优势研究*——基于省级农业科学院视角

[目的]通过测算各地区农业科技资源的配置能力,分析其比较优势并找出不足以便弥补差距,促进各区域农业科技配置能力的提高,为各地区农业经济的发展提供支持。省级农业科学院作为各省市规模最大、综合实力最强的农业科研机构,是农业科技创新的重要主体之一,分析其科技资源配置能力具有重要的现实意义。[方法]基于2009—2016年相关数据,遴选了有代表性的评价指标体系,运用突变级数法计算农业科技资源配置能力,运用NRCA模型定量分析农业科技资源配置效益的比较优势。[结果]山东农业科学院科技资源配置能力位居全国第一,甘肃、江苏、青海农业科学院分别在农业科技人力、物力、财力资源方面具有明显的比较优势。[结论]省级农业科学院科技资源配置能力区域差异十分明显,但区域格局变化不大,且大致与各地区经济实力相吻合;农业科技资源配置能力较高的农业科学院大多在农业科技物力资源配置效益方面具有比较优势,在农业科技人力、财力资源配置效益方面不具备比较优势。     

基于农民主体视角的村庄环境整治满意度研究——以江苏省4个地区的调查为例

[目的]近年来各地积极推进村庄环境整治工作,取得了良好的成效,但是基于农民主体视角的村庄环境整治评估工作开展并不充分,因此有必要对此进行有效探索,明确农民对当前村庄环境整治工作的满意程度,分析制约当地村庄环境整治农民满意度的关键因素,以期为政府更好地实施村庄环境整治工作提供参考方向,使村庄环境整治更符合农民的实际需求。[方法]以江苏省姜堰区、高邮市、大丰市和涟水县271个有效样本为基础,构建了包括4个方面21个具体指标的村庄环境整治农民满意度评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评价法对4个地区村庄环境整治农民满意度进行总体评价,借助四象限对比分析找出制约当地村庄环境整治农民满意度的关键因素。[结果]4个地区村庄环境整治农民满意度综合得分为77.07分,当地村庄环境整治项目得到了农民的基本认可;四象限分析结果显示,农民对其需求较为强烈,但是目前的整治现状尚不能达到农民期望值的制约因素主要为河塘污染治理、人禽粪便处理、乡村道路和排水管网设施,其次房屋内外装修、工业污染治理、文化娱乐设施、公厕数量与质量和娱乐活动等指标农民满意度偏低,需要进一步的改善。[结论]当前村庄环境整治农民满意度总体较高,影响满意度的制约因素主要集中在生态环境和基础设施方面,文末从保护生态环境、改善基础设施和提高农民参与性3个方面提出了对策建议。